Disproportional representation: what National wins and loses from the overhang
An unprecedented MMP election result suggests the tectonic plates of New Zealand politics are drifting, with the electoral rules struggling to compensate.
New Zealand's election result has exposed the disproportionate impact of the overhang system in the mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system. With a record number of MPs, the overhang could potentially see the next parliament exceed 131 members. While National currently holds 42 seats, representing 32% of the parliament, Labour holds 27.5% in a similar number of seats, despite having a similar lead in party vote share.
This discrepancy, which occurred in previous elections such as 1978 and 1981, mirrors the situation in 2026. National now faces challenges in coalition negotiations and cabinet composition due to the overhang. Moreover, National's strong performance in electorates could prove advantageous in the long term, as population growth may increase the number of electorate seats relative to list seats.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
