China's trade surplus soars past US$1tril as AI boom powers exports

Beijing's trade surplus has surpassed US$1 trillion in the first ten months of the year, propelled by a surge in exports driven by the booming global AI infrastructure market. The record-breaking surplus of US$1.04 trillion underscores China's growing reliance on overseas demand to support its economy, which has been hampered by weak domestic consumption and a protracted property slump.

The export boom is expected to persist into 2027, thanks to the global investment in AI technology, but could intensify trade tensions with major trading partners, including the European Union. October exports rose by 35.20% year-on-year, slightly below the 36.30% surge in September but exceeding economists' forecast of a 33.50% increase.

This export growth has helped China break the US$1 trillion trade surplus barrier for the second consecutive year, earlier than in 2025. The expanding surplus may fuel further tensions with the EU, where leaders have called for stricter trade measures following their recent agreement to limit Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles to the bloc.

Beijing has temporarily extended a trade truce with Washington, set to expire on November 10, but has linked any increase in US farm goods purchases to reciprocal tariff reductions. The increased trade tensions are likely to persist in 2027 as Chinese manufacturers expand their international presence. Despite the export growth, domestic demand remains weak, with consumers cautious about spending due to the property market slump.

This has forced Chinese automakers to seek sales in overseas markets, and domestic vehicle sales have continued to decline for the 12th consecutive month. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are set to meet, will be held in Shenzhen, a hub for China's technology and innovation sector.