China October soybean imports fall on high inventories, weak crush margins

China's soybean imports in October plummeted to their lowest level since 2023, according to customs data released on Tuesday. The nation purchased 7.35 million metric tons of soybeans, a 22.5% reduction from the 9.48 million tons imported the previous year and a 38% drop compared to September. Analysts attributed the decline to a combination of high crusher inventories, negative margins, and low pork prices, which collectively dampened buying enthusiasm.

Liu Jinlu, an agriculture researcher at Beijing-based Guoyan Futures, explained that the shortage of South American old-crop supplies, coupled with the delayed start of US new-crop shipments, further contributed to the sluggish imports. Liu forecasted that a revival in imports during November and December would hinge on China-US trade relations and an uptick in crushing margins.

The main risks include potential weather disruptions in the US, slower export shipments, and unpredictable weather patterns in South America. From January to October, China's total soybean arrivals reached 93.48 million tons, marking a 2.3% decline compared to the same period in 2023. The country's private soybean processors are bracing for a challenging fourth quarter due to tightening inventories in Brazil's top exporter and tariffs that have largely restricted US cargo access.

Analysts also cautioned that China's pig herd could contract in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027, as the government intensifies efforts to stabilize the oversupplied market, casting doubt on future feed demand. As of the end of September, China's breeding sow inventory stood at 36.02 million, a 10.7% decrease from three months prior, according to the country's statistics bureau.