Chance of US-Iran agreement now greater than two months ago, expert tells Post
Shine stressed that negotiations could still fall through if the US refused to bend on giving Iran the right to uranium enrichment or if personal egos got in the way.
Senior researcher Sima Shine, a former director at the Institute for National Security Studies, told The Jerusalem Post that the chances of a US-Iran agreement reaching a conclusion are now higher than they were two months ago. However, she warned that negotiations could still fail if the US fails to agree to Iran's right to uranium enrichment or if personal conflicts within the talks cause a breakdown.
Shine believes Trump and Iran's negotiation team have been motivated to avoid military escalation due to the results of the midterms and the upcoming winter season. Trump suggested in an interview with CBS's "60 Minutes" that his opposition to Israel and the Iran war contributed to Democrats' success in the midterms. He also admitted that the defeat in Congress was partly due to the Iran war, suggesting that ending the conflict could be a priority in the next two years.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, according to Shine, has also expressed a desire to end the "no war, no peace" situation. The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been successful, and now that winter is approaching, a fuel shortage could put additional pressure on Iran's struggling economy. Iranian lawmakers have warned households to cut energy use as temperatures drop.
Despite both sides having their own reasons to end the war, major obstacles remain, and Iran is unlikely to agree to an arrangement that does not allow it to continue uranium enrichment, a demand Trump opposes. While Shine acknowledges that a better agreement could have been reached two years ago, she believes there is still a good chance of an agreement today. She theorized that pressure from Gulf states may have influenced Trump's openness to negotiation.
The uncertainty surrounding Iran's potential future actions if an agreement is not reached, especially in relation to US territory like Pickaxe Mountain, also remains a concern. The fragile situation between the two nations is characterized by a lack of trust, but Shine believes the Trump administration, and Trump himself, will decide the course of action moving forward.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
