Aluminium falls on higher Chinese exports and hopes for Middle East de-escalation
LONDON: Aluminium prices fell on Tuesday to their lowest in more than two weeks as rising exports from top producer China and hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East eased supply concerns, offsetting support from tight inventories. Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.1% at $3,031.50 a metric ton by 0950 GMT after touching $3,014, its lowest level since…
Aluminium prices plummeted on Tuesday, reaching their lowest point in over two weeks, as China's increased exports and Middle East peace prospects reduced supply worries. This came despite support from limited inventories. The benchmark three-month aluminium price on the London Metal Exchange dropped 1.1%, settling at $3,031.50 per metric ton by 0950 GMT, marking its lowest level since October 23.
China reported a 18% surge in aluminium and aluminium product exports to 5.9 million tons in the first ten months of 2026. Aluminium prices have plummeted by 20% since hitting a four-year peak in June, as Middle Eastern supply disruptions due to the Iran war have progressed faster than anticipated. Moreover, new production capacity is expected in Indonesia.
Copper experienced a rebound due to stronger risk sentiment and China's constrained supply. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump decided to temporarily halt additional military strikes against Iran, following appeals from regional countries. "With additional metal returning from the Middle East and Indonesian projects ramping up, global supply growth is expected to outpace demand, transitioning the market into surplus by 2027," analysts at ANZ stated.
This outlook should curb aluminium price increases in the following year, though lingering Middle Eastern supply risks are anticipated to keep prices volatile and above $3,000 through early 2027.
Relatively low global inventories offered some support to aluminium, according to Rupankar RM, head of market research at AL Circle. LME-registered warehouses held 207,525 tons of available aluminium, the lowest level since March 2025. The inventories consist mainly of Russian-made metal, which many Western traders avoid. Tight availability for immediate supply is evident in the premium of the LME cash aluminium contract over the three-month benchmark, which reached $96 a ton, the widest since June.
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