Venter på signaler: – Kan snu opp ned på hele regnestykket

Next week, market tensions will arise from sources other than the calendar, according to Nordea's chief strategist, Joachim Bernhardsen. The most important factor will be how the market reacts to the US midterm election, which took place the previous week, resulting in a significant drop in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq falling over 9.6% in the past month. Bernhardsen asks whether an AI rally will occur next week or if the market will remain highly nervous.

Oil prices also dropped sharply following the defeat of the Democrats. J.D. Vance, President Joe Biden's vice president, was quick to diagnose the cause of the election setback on X: "The reason we lost is war," he wrote on Wednesday. The question now is whether the election setback can provide momentum for peace talks in the Middle East.

Chief economist Harald Magnus Andreassen is watching for signals that will be sent out next week. "We now assume that the Trump administration has at least taken steps to acknowledge that the war in Iran is extremely unpopular," he says. Andreassen believes that the Republican Party is trying to find a way out of the war without losing too much face. He is not convinced that President Trump will deliver on market expectations, adding, "Trump may do things tomorrow that could throw the whole calculation off."

While the calendar is relatively calm, the important inflation figures from both Norway and the US are expected to be released. Norwegians are expecting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be around 3.7%, while core inflation is projected to be 2.7%. Andreassen believes that the price increase must be significantly higher than expected before the figures become crucial for the Fino Bank's decision on interest rates.

Andreassen does not expect a new interest rate hike in 2026, and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, will not be released this week. Instead, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be the focus, with a expected month-over-month increase of 0.3%. If the core inflation rate is at 0.2%, it will be considered high, but if it is between 0.2% and 0.1%, it will be considered low, according to Andreassen.