Up or Down, the Experts Just Can’t Get Fertility Right

Australia's total fertility rate has experienced a slight rise after a decade of decline, but experts struggle to grasp the underlying causes. The fertility rate, which represents the average number of children born to women, decreased from 1.80 in 2015 to 1.48 in 2024 and then slightly rebounded to 1.50 in 2025. This represents a 17.7% drop. However, the data includes over a million temporary residents who are unlikely to have children, as they work, study, or send money back home.

Focusing solely on Australian-born women, the fertility rate fell from 1.82 in 2015 to 1.61 in 2025, a reduction of 11.5%. While this decline might raise long-term concerns, there are factors that suggest fertility is relatively stable. First, fertility rates are susceptible to policy interventions. For instance, when the government offered parents $4000 to help offset the costs of having a child, fertility rates increased by 13.5% in just four years.

Second, the median age of mothers at childbirth has risen from 31.0 in 2015 to 32.1. This shift in age alone can lead to a temporary decline in fertility.

Experts such as Beidar Cho, head of population statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and Terry Rawnsley of KPMG seem to overlook these nuances when discussing fertility. Rawnsley even attributes the region-city birth disparity to affordability, failing to recognize that many women in city centers are international students.

Similarly, the Herald and Age quoted Rawnsley on interest rates and their impact on fertility, but this seems to overlook the reality that Australian-born women are more sensitive to interest rate changes than foreign-born women.

In conclusion, Australia's fertility rates are currently healthy and rank among the highest in the developed world. With targeted policy changes to make parenting more affordable and accessible, Australia could avoid a fertility crisis and sustain natural population growth indefinitely.