The Trade Desk Stock Has Lost About 89% Since the End of 2024. Its Nov. 9 Report Is the Next Test.
After missing its own forecast last quarter, can the ad tech company clear a lower bar?
On Monday, November 9, The Trade Desk (TTD) will release its third-quarter results, after which its stock has lost about 89% since the end of 2024. The stock experienced a 22% drop the day after the company's August forecast and currently trades near $13, down from $117.53 at the end of 2024.
The ad tech company's revenue guidance for third-quarter 2025 was around $650 million, but the actual revenue was below expectations. The company missed its own floor for two straight quarters, with the second quarter revenue growth being just 3% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA also came in under the forecast.
The Trade Desk forecasts revenue as a minimum amount, and recent results have been near that minimum or under it. The company's fourth-quarter revenue of $847 million was $7 million over the company's floor in 2025, but first-quarter 2026 revenue of $689 million was $11 million below the $750 million floor. A forecast under the $650 million threshold would indicate that the declines are still getting steeper.
The slowdown is likely in mobile, display, or the rest of video, as revenue growth was driven by new clients and overseas markets. A quarter that hits $650 million mainly from new clients and international growth might still leave the biggest part of the business under pressure. The U.S. market share of revenue was around 83% in the second quarter, down from 86% a year earlier, suggesting flat U.S. revenue while international markets drove growth.
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