The Kremlin hopes the US election shake-up won’t shift Trump’s negotiations on Ukraine

The Kremlin appears to be optimistic that the U.S. midterm elections will not affect its negotiations with Ukraine. Following the Republicans' defeat, some Russian observers believe the Democrats' takeover of Congress could lead to increased support for Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed hope that President Donald Trump will continue his peace efforts between Moscow and Kyiv.

Peskov mentioned upcoming trilateral negotiations set to take place in Abu Dhabi and praised the humanitarian peace-building efforts led by first lady Melania Trump. He also stated that they hope these initiatives will persist.

Last week's ceasefire around the Russia-occupied city of Oleshky, facilitated by Trump's first lady, enabled the delivery of humanitarian aid and the evacuation of some residents. Peskov dismissed concerns that the new Congress would challenge Trump's stance on Russia and Ukraine, calling it an "internal matter" for the U.S. In recent months, Trump's actions seemed to favor Moscow, including a diesel fuel import deal and a halt to sanctions on Russia.

However, Ukraine reported a throttling of Starshield, a military-grade satellite internet service. Trump denied involvement but the move was seen as part of Washington's pressure on Kyiv.

The Kremlin downplayed the development, claiming deliveries would continue. Ukraine desperately needs replenishment of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors to counter Russian ballistic missile attacks, but the U.S. has exhausted its stockpiles due to the Iran war and prioritized its own defense needs. On October 30, the Trump administration approved a $2.1 billion sale of Patriot interceptors for Ukraine.

Trump's meeting with Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who attended a White House ceremony recognizing the humanitarian truce, hints at a potential grand deal on European security. Some Russians argue that the Democrats' victory could pressure Trump to be more cautious with Ukraine, while Russian deputy head of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev predicted Trump might be less inclined to press Ukraine when a new Congress is seated.