Samvat: Will the good times roll for businesses?

Samvat 2083, the Hindu New Year, marks the start of a new commercial cycle for India's business community. Traders and merchants view it as a fresh beginning, opening new account books and seeking prosperity.

Beyond Dalal Street, Samvat 2083 offers an occasion to assess India's economy and commercial prospects. With reasonably strong domestic fundamentals, the Indian economy faces an uncertain global environment. However, domestic demand continues to provide a growth cushion, with the services sector expanding at its fastest pace in four months in October.

Recent indicators suggest that the festive season provided a promising start for the new Samvat. October's GST collections rose 22.9% year-on-year, and net GST collections increased by 25.6%. This suggests substantial economic activity during the festive period. Gold sales on Dhanteras, a key festival, improved despite higher domestic prices, indicating sustained consumer demand.

Manufacturing enters Samvat 2083 with a mixed outlook. India's HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index slightly declined in October, but export orders grew at their fastest pace in six months, providing some relief to businesses facing margin pressures. However, employment growth remains sluggish, and business confidence remains below average. The real test for the coming year will be whether export demand translates into sustained production growth and employment creation.