SABC News and CSIR team up again for 2026 LGE forecasting

SABC News and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) are collaborating once more to forecast the outcomes of the 2026 Local Government Elections. For nearly a decade, this partnership has utilized science, technology, and data analytics to interpret South Africa's intricate democratic process. As millions of South Africans await the final results, the public broadcaster has been a go-to source for updates, analysis, and projections.

Currently, the National Results Operations Centre at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand is the epicenter of South Africa's election count. Political parties, election observers, analysts, and media personnel have gathered to monitor results and observe the country's political climate in real-time. However, the forecasting of election outcomes began months prior to the actual count.

Using historical voting data and advanced statistical models, the CSIR assists SABC News in projecting trends and potential outcomes as results start to pour in. Professor Pravesh Debba of the CSIR explains, "We demarcate voting districts beforehand and identify clusters of similar districts. As results come in, we compare them to these clusters to predict the performance of undeclared districts."

The 2026 elections saw the increasing impact of social media on voter opinions and electoral decisions. Matlala Setlhalogile from the Wits School of Governance notes, "For the longest time, social media support didn't directly convert into electoral support. However, this time, discussions around political parties, particularly on platforms like ActionSA, translated into actual votes." This shift in voter behavior underscores the importance of understanding social media's role in shaping electoral landscapes.

With coalition politics expected to dominate local governance due to numerous municipalities failing to achieve a clear majority, comprehending voter sentiment has become crucial. For SABC News, the collaboration with the CSIR continues to serve as a vital resource in helping audiences navigate complex election data and grasp the trends influencing South Africa's dynamic political environment.