Republicans saw Indian Americans as ‘natural conservative voters.’ But Trump’s second term undid the gains as their support for Democrats shot up

In 2024, Donald Trump managed to gain support from Indian Americans, a group that typically votes Democratic. According to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Trump secured the backing of 30% of Indian Americans in 2024, up from 22% in 2020. However, this support quickly dissipated as Trump's second term progressed.

A recent survey conducted by Carnegie in October found that only 19% of Indian American adults planned to vote for the Republican candidate in their congressional district, compared to 62% who intended to vote for the Democratic candidate. In Senate races, Democrats enjoyed a significant lead over Republicans, with 63% of Indian American voters backing the Democratic candidate compared to just 21% supporting the Republican.

The shift in support can be attributed to a combination of factors, including economic concerns, anti-Indian rhetoric from some Republicans, and rising living costs. Economic challenges, such as inflation and the rising cost of living, drew Indian Americans towards Trump's candidacy in 2024. However, these concerns were further exacerbated by Trump's immigration policies, particularly the stricter H1-B visa restrictions, and the rise in anti-Indian rhetoric within the Republican Party.

A notable example of this rhetoric was a comment made by Republican candidate Bo French during a political event, where he expressed disbelief at the sight of predominantly South Asian students celebrating a university football victory. This incident reignited concerns among Indian Americans that Republicans may not fully embrace their community.

The issue of racism, particularly anti-South Asian rhetoric, emerged as a significant factor in alienating Indian American voters. Furthermore, the GOP's increasing embrace of evangelical Christianity has also limited its appeal to Indian American voters, as the majority of Indian Americans do not identify as Christians. This religious divide was evident in Texas politics, where Democratic candidate James Talarico won a U.S. Senate seat in 2023 by capitalizing on Hindu voters' concerns over the GOP's insistence on displaying the Ten Commandments in public schools.

Despite the shift in support towards Democrats, 35% of Indian Americans who planned to vote for the Democratic Party cited opposition to Republicans as their primary motivation, rather than support for the Democratic Party itself.