Pre-election polls understated right in NZ, with overhang skewing preliminary results
Polls were showing the right leading the left before the election, but National, ACT and New Zealand First all did better on the night.
Preliminary results from New Zealand's recent election show there are 11 overhang seats, expanding the parliament from its nominal 120 to 131 members. Overhangs occur when a party wins more electorate seats than it is entitled to based on its proportional party vote. This is the largest overhang since the mixed-member proportional (MMP) system was introduced in 1996.
New Zealand's election had National and Labour neck and neck, with National receiving 29.2% of the party vote and Labour 29.4%. However, National is leading in 42 of the 71 electorates, while Labour leads in 21. This has resulted in a seven-seat overhang for National and a four-seat overhang for Te Pāti Māori. Right-wing parties currently hold 67 seats, one more than the 66 needed for a majority, while left-wing parties have 57 seats.
Opportunity Party, which could potentially hold the balance of power between left and right, won 6.0% of the party list vote, exceeding the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament without winning an electorate. If there were no overhangs, the right would still have a majority, as their 6.7-point lead over the left outweighs Opportunity's 6.0% share. However, shifts to the left on the party vote could make the right party fall below a majority.
Special votes could further impact the final results, as they often swing outcomes in favor of either left or right-wing parties. In past elections, left-wing parties have gained seats from right-wing parties between the preliminary results and the final count. National leads Labour in two electorates by fewer than 500 votes each, with the margin in Hamilton East being 456 votes and in Wairarapa being 139 votes. If National lost both of these seats, the right would have a bare majority with 65 of the 129 seats.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
