Netanyahu's comeback bid: What happens if Eisenkot fails to form govt in Israel

After inconclusive elections on October 27, President Isaac Herzog invited former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot to attempt forming the next government. However, his coalition did not achieve a parliamentary majority. Eisenkot now faces several challenges in consolidating support.

To form a government, Eisenkot can seek backing from Arab parties Ra am and the Joint List, which together hold 19 seats. Together with his Yashar party and other allies, they could reach 67 seats, allowing a minority government. However, Eisenkot has pledged not to include Arab parties, which may prove difficult to reverse, especially after the 2023 Hamas attack.

Another option is to garner support from Israel's two ultra-Orthodox parties, which hold 13 seats. Their backing would bring Eisenkot's bloc to the required 61-seat majority. Yet, this would involve navigating issues of military service exemptions, a contentious topic among Israelis.

If neither option works, Netanyahu could potentially form a new government. His bloc has dwindled from 64 seats to 53. However, he could still try to sway lawmakers from rival parties to defect and join him. Alternatively, he may attempt to form a unity government with Yashar, Together, Israel Our Home, and Likud, which together hold 67 seats. But this seems unlikely as it would require both Eisenkot and Netanyahu to abandon their central campaign promises.

If both leaders fail to form a government within the 42-day deadline, Herzog may invite Netanyahu to try again. Another election may follow if no candidate succeeds in forming a government within 100 days.