‘If people start practising asset allocation, they will view volatility as opportunity’: ICICI Prudential AMC Executive Director, CIO

On October 27, Sankaran Naren, Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer at ICICI Prudential AMC, discussed the current state of the markets and investment strategies with Sandeep Singh, National Bureau Chief at The Indian Express. Naren identified three primary factors holding markets back: geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine and the Gulf, and record high crude oil prices; rapid growth in AI-related sectors in countries like the US, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, which has outpaced India's growth potential; and a surge in equity mutual fund investments leading to the sale of stocks by Indian promoters, private equity firms, and multinational corporations.

The most significant concern for Naren is the potential impact of AI on India's long-term growth. He acknowledged that while the war will eventually end and oil prices may decline, the long-term effects of AI remain uncertain. India's goal of becoming a $20-trillion economy within two decades faces stiff competition from countries like Vietnam and Thailand in the manufacturing sector.

Naren emphasized the need for India to create more manufacturing jobs and highlighted the challenges of establishing a global manufacturing hub in every industry.

Regarding sectors likely to yield high returns, Naren suggested banking, oil marketing companies, and aviation as potential beneficiaries of a potential end to the US-Iran war. However, he cautioned that the Reserve Bank of India's ongoing interest rate hikes could continue if oil prices remain high. Domestic factors such as a manageable current account deficit, fiscal deficit, and booming credit growth provide some comfort to investors. However, challenges such as a subpar monsoon and the potential impact of El Niño persist.

Naren strongly believes that asset allocation is crucial given the external uncertainties. He advised investors to embrace volatility by practicing asset allocation, rather than focusing on individual stocks or leveraged derivatives. He recommended three broad categories of schemes for investors to consider: balanced advantage, balanced hybrid, and flexi cap. By maintaining a diversified portfolio across these categories, investors can navigate market fluctuations and focus on long-term savings and investment goals.