Defense establishment shocked by Trump's Israel aid cut off, details unclear, sources tell 'Post'

Israeli defense officials and political leaders were taken aback by President Donald Trump's abrupt suspension of military aid to Israel, leaving many unclear about the implications for budgetary and weapons sale decisions. While some political officials sought to minimize the impact on Israel's national security by asserting that a partnership model was already part of previous negotiations, Israeli defense officials were shocked, as they believed the cut-off was expected by 2028 at the latest. The silence from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further added to the confusion.

The uncertainty surrounding the situation is evident, with wide confusion despite days having passed since Trump's announcement. It remains unclear whether Israeli officials' delay in addressing the issue is due to the US's own ambiguity or Netanyahu's embarrassment, the Israeli government's struggle, or other factors. Before Trump's move, US defense officials, Netanyahu, and Israeli defense officials had clarity on the amounts and timing of the freeze.

However, with the current situation, both US government officials and private sector entities may independently freeze certain weapons transfers or approvals to avoid missteps.

While the partial freeze initiated by former President Joe Biden in May 2024 had only a narrow scope, it still caused ripple effects across various arms transfers, significantly slowing non-formally frozen weapons transfers. Despite Israel's appreciation for Trump's support for Israel's actions against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, with fewer restrictions compared to the Biden administration, Israeli officials expressed more concern for the future, as there is currently no clear path to a resolution.

In June 2024, it was revealed that then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant managed to unfreeze many restrictions by pledging how specific weapons would or would not be used. However, Trump's policy might lack a clear resolution if he decides that continuing military aid is not politically viable. On a positive note, Trump has stated that the US will continue to sell Israel the weapons it desires.

The most optimistic scenario envisions Trump quietly restoring some military aid over the next two years, albeit on an ad hoc basis. This approach would mean less real-time reporting to US Congress and the public, which would be necessary under a formal agreement. Despite the Trump announcement, there are still no plans to rebuild Israel's fighter jet industry, which closed in the 1980s. Israeli officials estimate that restoring the industry would take approximately a decade.