‘AI 쇼크’ 한파 맞은 금융시장…반등할까

The domestic and foreign financial markets experienced a significant downturn following the U.S. midterm elections, fueled by concerns over increased regulation of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and slowed profitability. The Kospi index plummeted for two days after the midterm elections, falling more than 10% to dip below the 5,050 line.

The outflow of foreign investments from domestic stocks contributed to a weakening of the won-dollar exchange rate, which reached as low as 1360 won. The heightened sensitivity towards the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate hikes in December added to the AI shock.

Domestic market fluctuations and volatility in foreign exchange markets are of particular concern. The main focus of the financial markets is the milestone of the Kospi index reaching 5,000 points. On the last week of the previous month, Kospi failed to hold steady for two consecutive days, plunging to 4,911.28 and briefly touching 5059.69, ultimately closing just above 5,000 points.

Analysts expect a rebound in the next trading session, driven by the influx of bearish sentiment on semiconductor stocks and a high proportion of semiconductor-related stocks in the overall market, accounting for 50% to 70-80% of the total market value. The 'Philadelphia Semiconductor Index' has been known to determine the overall movement of the index.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a sharp decline on the 4th (-3.13%) and 5th (-12.25%) days, before rebounding on the 6th (+4.21%). However, the sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain. The presence of leveraged positions in global hedge funds, which surged to the highest level of the year in the first half of the year, centered around AI-related stocks is a key factor.

The impact of AI-related stock declines and the reduction in leverage by global hedge funds reverberated across foreign exchange markets, pushing the won-dollar exchange rate to a record high of 1363 won. The last day of trading saw a significant jump from the previous day's low of 1320.6 won, marking a stark contrast to earlier expectations.

Finally, the upcoming release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and CoreLogic's third-quarter earnings report on October 10th are key variables to watch in the volatile financial market, with expectations that the CPI will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.