Absturz an der Nasdaq: Warnschuss oder Anfang vom Ende des KI-Booms?

On Thursday, 2.5 trillion dollars in value vanished from American stock markets in one day. The following day saw a slight recovery, but it was too tentative to indicate a genuine relief. Initially, it seemed the investors had the usual happy ending: after the American midterms, they were relieved that President Donald Trump did not question the validity of the results – he is known to be no good loser.

NZZ.ch requires JavaScript for key functions. Your browser or ad blocker is currently blocking this. Despite the winner of the elections having no impact on the stock market, the situation changed with the Democrats gaining momentum. Investors panicked as the Democrats aimed to stop the growth of data centers consuming massive amounts of electricity, a dominant issue in the campaign.

Many investors suspected the KI hype (Artificial Intelligence) was on shaky ground, and panic ensued. First, retail investors sold, followed by hedge funds and other investors using leverage, and finally institutional investors. 2.5 trillion dollars evaporated, and investors dumped anything related to KI, from Nvidia to Micron. By Friday, the Nasdaq showed a slight recovery, but it was timid, leaving the question of whether the sell-offs would continue next week.

The decline was unprecedentedly severe, yet the technology-focused Nasdaq stock market remained in the plus since the beginning of the year, despite the turbulence mounting. The Swiss benchmark index SMI, which briefly surpassed 15,000 points this week, is also in the profit zone. Given that many optimistic assumptions underpin the KI boom, the fall's magnitude will remain significant even after this correction.

Even the launch of Anthropic is under a bad sign. It remains uncertain if the company will reach its targeted market value of 1.5 trillion dollars. Investment experts are conspicuously cautious with buy-the-dip recommendations, advising investors to buy shares after a price correction. It is quite possible that new data center construction will proceed slowly, and the whole KI narrative will unravel.

It is also possible that problems will arise in hedge funds or investment vehicles investing in private-owned stocks and loans, which often use leverage to achieve high returns. Recent reports, including those in the «Financial Times», have highlighted issues at Arini Capital Management, founded by Hamza Lemssouguer. Lemssouguer previously traded European high-yield bonds at Credit Suisse and launched the fund while working for the Swiss bank.

He went solo in 2021 with his team. Arini has reportedly been denied rumors of being in difficulties after a 26% loss. Those primarily investing in Swiss stocks or indices without technology companies, data center operators, or large tech conglomerates are unlikely to face immediate threats. However, should the turmoil persist and lead to a stock crash, some investors may be forced to sell non-KI-related assets simply to fill the gaps and sell anything that is still high-valued.

Defensive stocks like Nestlé and Novartis or gold prices could face pressure, at least in the short term. Investors looking for safety should maintain a higher cash percentage than usual. From the central banks, investors can expect no help: The American labor market figures published on Friday were solid, making another interest rate hike in December even more likely.

US, European, and Asian stock markets experienced significant losses, with the Nasdaq falling as strongly as never before since 2000. While the Swiss benchmark SMI index briefly crossed 15,000 points this week, it remains in the profit zone. Given that many optimistic assumptions underpin the KI boom, the depth of the fall will still be considerable.