USDA to launch AI tool to check crop production data after errors

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is set to introduce an artificial intelligence (AI) tool to scrutinize data in its upcoming monthly crop production report, following a series of errors that have shaken farmers and traders' trust in its forecasts. USDA Under Secretary Scott Hutchins revealed that the AI tool, which will be utilized during a test run on the report scheduled for November 10, has the potential to restore confidence in the data that frequently impacts markets.

The tool's debut comes after the USDA discovered mistakes in its corn data from September, an incident that has raised concerns about the agency's ability to provide accurate information. With the AI tool, the USDA aims to identify anomalies that might have otherwise gone unnoticed during the regular data validation process.

In September, the USDA corrected its corn production and yield data, with the yield estimate increasing by about 3% in Nebraska, the third-largest corn-producing state, and decreasing by about 2% in Kansas. The errors occurred due to a computer file that mistakenly combined data on irrigated and non-irrigated corn acres from field surveys, disproportionately affecting states with higher percentages of irrigated fields, such as Kansas and Nebraska.

Lance Honig, chair of the agricultural statistics board for USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, explained that the September errors were isolated incidents that could have been detected with proper validation. He emphasized that there were no issues with the data gathered at the field level.

The introduction of the AI tool is not meant to replace the USDA's data validation processes but to complement them. Hutchins stated that the tool will serve as an additional check to ensure no anomalies are present in the agency's data.

The credibility of USDA data has been called into question since the Trump administration significantly reduced the government workforce, leading to a loss of thousands of employees. This staffing reduction has raised worries about the agency's capacity to produce accurate and timely data.

Recent inaccuracies have also been highlighted outside of the corn sector. Analysts questioned the accuracy of a recent USDA report on soy processing, which revealed a significant discrepancy between the number of soybeans crushed and the amount of soymeal produced in Iowa. The USDA is currently reviewing the report and plans to make any necessary revisions in the following month.