Trump's midterm rout sends shock waves through Europe
After Trump's midterm rout, Europe sees cracks in populist right. It may not stop France’s Le Pen
A decade ago, US President Donald Trump's victory sparked a populist shock wave across the West. Now, Europe wonders if the midterm rout of his Republican Party will bring one back. European opponents of right-wing populism view the US vote as the latest evidence of its faltering rise. Since April, voters have removed Hungary's Viktor Orbán, ended Serbia's Aleksandar Vučić's grip on power, and blocked Brazil's Bolsonaro family's return.
Péter Krekó, director of Budapest's Political Capital Institute, warns that when cracks in power become visible, they can trigger a cascade effect.
In France, nationalist Marine Le Pen is the frontrunner in an upcoming presidential election, which could grant the European Union's sole nuclear arsenal and UN Security Council veto to a far-right figure. The populist right's recent setbacks could unsettle Le Pen, but her National Rally party has never governed France. Le Pen also faces a legal threat, as France's highest court may rule on her appeal of an embezzlement conviction by early April, just weeks before the first round of voting.
Analysts suggest that voters who gave Democrats control of the U.S. House and Senate might have been punishing Trump's record, particularly on the economy, rather than his "America First" ideas. While populists continue to win some elections, such as in Poland, Chile, and Colombia, the trend of far-right defeats has been notable.
In the past 18 months, there have been at least eight national election setbacks for illiberal populist parties, including in Romania, the Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary, Sweden, Serbia, Brazil, and the United States.
France's far right still has momentum, according to political scientist Gilles Ivaldi. However, the left has seized on the midterm result, while the far right remains nonchalant. Even some within the populist right acknowledge a pattern, with the U.S. midterms joining defeats of Bolsonaro and Orbán. The French left and right are calling the outcome a message of hope and a rejection of Trump's policies, respectively. The real danger lies in the mainstream elite's failure to counter the far right.
Written by urgent.news from Gulf News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
