Suspicious prediction market activity seen before election poll release: NYT
Bets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls were released to the public, according to a report.
Suspicious betting activity was observed on prediction markets shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls were published, according to a report. Vanderbilt University researchers noted that a Polymarket user placed nearly $200,000 on October 31st that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would secure re-election. An hour later, the same poll was released, revealing Ricketts as the frontrunner.
The anonymous user then profited over $77,000 from the market. While it remains unclear if the bettor had privileged information, the sheer scale of the wagers raises concerns, according to Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. He emphasized that the pattern of events suggests it is unlikely to be a coincidence and warrants further investigation.
Polymarket confirmed they had identified the trades and are currently investigating. Kalshi declined to comment on the matter. In April, Cointelegraph reported that a US Army soldier, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, faced charges after allegedly betting over $400,000 on a prediction market using nonpublic information related to a US operation targeting then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The Department of Justice alleged that Van Dyke exploited this information to purchase contracts predicting events such as Maduro's ousting by January 31st and Donald Trump invoking the War Powers Act against Venezuela by the same date.
Written by urgent.news from Cointelegraph's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
