Prediction: SpaceX Will Not Cancel the Falcon 9 in 2028
Elon Musk has 22.2 billion reasons to rethink retiring Falcon 9 between now and 2028.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) announced in August 2026 that the Falcon 9 reusable rocket might be retired by 2028, leaving other space companies to pick up its slack. The Falcon 9 is the world's second-most-flown rocket, with a low launch cost of $74 million and a payload to orbit of 22.8 metric tons. However, Elon Musk has shifted his focus to the new Starship rocket, which could fly several times per week once it becomes reliable.
SpaceX may then shift resources to Starship, winding down Falcon missions for NASA and commercial operations. This could leave a significant gap in launch supply, with a shortfall of about 150 launches between now and 2030, according to Eric Berger of Ars Technica. However, Berger believes that SpaceX will find a way to service this market, as they have done with other rockets.
The untapped market for 300 rocket launches from now through 2030 could be worth $22.2 billion, and SpaceX is likely to capitalise on this opportunity if they believe there is a market for it.
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