Pakistan’s balancing act in a fragmenting world

Pakistan is navigating a complex foreign policy landscape as the world becomes increasingly fragmented. The country is strengthening its defense alliances with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, while simultaneously maintaining ties with Iran, upholding its strategic partnership with China, and attempting to rehabilitate relations with the United States.

These relationships are not interchangeable, and analysts question whether Islamabad can expand its influence without becoming involved in protracted conflicts. The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye has elevated Pakistan's regional standing, but there is uncertainty about whether the nation can grow its influence without becoming entangled in long-term disputes.

While diplomatic leverage is an asset, transforming it into lasting influence proves challenging. The Mecca agreement, signed by the three nations on August 7, 2026, is the most explicit illustration of this strategy, stating that an armed assault on one member will be viewed as an assault on all. Pakistani officials characterize the arrangement as defensive and not aimed at any single country.

A committee is now being established to formalize cooperation, and a Saudi Arabian secretariat, headed by a Pakistani secretary-general, is set to commence operations within three years. For Islamabad, the agreement ties together a longstanding economic and security partner with a country boasting a capable defense industry and diplomatic reach.

Collaboration could enhance training, intelligence coordination, air defense, maritime security, and defense production. Additionally, it provides Pakistan with a formal position in discussions about a region crucial to its energy supplies and commercial interests. The agreement is part of a broader expansion of Pakistan's defense connections across the Middle East, including longstanding military ties with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman, as well as the Doha Memorandum signed by Pakistan, Qatar, Türkiye, and Indonesia, which focuses on defense production and technology.

Despite having a large military, nuclear deterrent, defense-production base, and extensive Gulf ties, Pakistan is cautious about making promises it cannot keep. Diplomatically, the most delicate challenge is with Iran, a neighboring nation with which Pakistan must collaborate on border security and trade. Regional stability necessitates functional relations between these two major powers, but Pakistan's defense partnership with Riyadh introduces a degree of tension, considering that Saudi Arabia is currently at odds with the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen.

Islamabad seeks to support Saudi Arabia's defensive security while preserving access to Tehran and promoting a negotiated resolution. Balancing these concerns is critical, especially as accusations and military incidents may pressure Pakistan to publicly align with one side or the other, yet abandoning either relationship would have significant consequences.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Pakistan's army chief, Syed Asim Munir, in Tehran on October 20, 2026. The impact of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has heightened the need for Pakistan to manage this balancing act, considering its implications for regional stability and maritime commerce. Pakistan has utilized its access to Tehran and Gulf capitals to pursue de-escalation, with Field Marshal Asim Munir actively participating in discussions with Iranian political and security figures, alongside Saudi and Turkish officials.

However, Pakistan cannot dictate Iran's nuclear decisions, determine Washington's military strategy, or guarantee Houthi acceptance. The credibility of Pakistan's approach hinges on its ability to communicate openly and honestly about its capabilities. If Iran perceives Islamabad as an agent of the Saudis or the Americans, the country's credibility will suffer.

Similarly, if Saudi Arabia doubts Pakistan's commitment to its defense, the Mecca agreement will lose credibility. For the United States, Pakistan has maintained effective partnerships with both Democratic and Republican administrations, but relations have particularly flourished under President Donald Trump. The U.S. midterm elections have dealt a significant blow to Trump, a Republican president, with Democrats gaining control of Congress.

While Trump retains considerable executive authority over foreign policy, scrutiny from a Democratic-led Congress is likely. The U.S. requires Pakistan's cooperation on issues such as Afghanistan, counterterrorism, and the Middle East, and Pakistan's geographical location, intelligence capabilities, and regional influence make it an indispensable asset for the U.S., making it unlikely that Washington will disregard Islamabad.

Economic ties further support this perspective; U.S.-Pakistan trade reached $11.5 billion in 2025. Despite its alliances with Washington, China remains Pakistan's most significant strategic partner, underscoring the country's multifaceted foreign policy requirements.