New Black Sea attacks raise threat of global food crisis
New Black Sea attacks raise threat of global food crisis newspress_en Sat, 11/07/2026 - 05:15 Business & Economy When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned at the Warsaw Security Forum on 12 October 2026 that a grain crisis could emerge within months, he was not speaking only about Ukraine’s loss of export revenue. He was warning that the war could once again spread from the Black Sea…
Recent attacks on the Black Sea have increased concerns about a potential global food crisis. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of a possible agricultural and food crisis emerging within months during a speech at the Warsaw Security Forum in October 2026. He emphasized that the disruptions to maritime routes due to attacks could lead to food shortages in countries across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar confirmed that Zelensky had requested Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary to facilitate the overland transit of Ukrainian grain, indicating that the issue had become a logistical crisis. While comparisons with the 2022 crisis require caution, several factors are different. The starting point is now, with global stock levels, market adaptability, and the geographical distribution of exposed countries being distinct from that time.
Ukraine has not lost its ability to produce grain, as the US Department of Agriculture estimates a wheat harvest of 26 million tonnes and maize production of 31.8 million tonnes for the 2026-27 season, with potential exports of 12.5 million and 22 million tonnes, respectively. However, 90% of Ukraine's grain exports pass through ports on the Black Sea, creating a bottleneck in the trade.
Exports through Ukrainian ports have significantly declined since the escalation of attacks. In the Odesa region, which handled around six million tonnes of cargo monthly before the escalation, exports have dropped to approximately four million tonnes per month. This decline is even steeper for wheat (41%) and barley (52%). Maize, on the other hand, has seen an increase in exports.
Although buyers might replace some Ukrainian grain with supplies from other countries, such as Russia, the European Union, Argentina, Australia, or the United States, the replacement grain may incur higher costs, have different specifications, and arrive with delays that some nations cannot afford. A prolonged blockage could also exacerbate the situation within Ukraine, where farmers may face cash shortages due to higher transport costs, potentially leading to a production crisis in 2027.
Written by urgent.news from Al Majalla English's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
