Joburg’s coalition puzzle: Three scenarios that could shape its future [AUDIO]

As Johannesburg has voted in a recent election, the real political battle is yet to unfold, with no clear path to a governing majority. Three scenarios are possible for shaping the future of Johannesburg, each with its own complexities and challenges.

The first scenario, deemed unlikely, involves ActionSA, ANC (African National Congress), EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), and other parties uniting against the DA (Democratic Alliance) to kick out Helen Zille. However, this scenario proves difficult to execute due to the ANC's diverse politics at the national and provincial levels.

A second scenario could involve Helen Zille and Herman Mashaba forming a low-trust coalition, which might prove hard to work together. This scenario has potential, but the two strong politicians may struggle to reach an agreement that benefits both. Additionally, the DA and ActionSA could form a three-way deal, covering all cities in Gauteng and potentially excluding the ANC from power in subnational governments. This would be a significant shift in political power.

Sam Mkokeli, a lead partner at Mkokeli Advisory, emphasizes that the parties involved in these negotiations are driven by self-interest rather than the voters' demands. The ANC, in particular, is unlikely to change its behavior due to a history of disregarding voter feedback in previous elections. ActionSA, supported by the DA, could emerge as the ultimate kingmaker across the province, demanding substantial concessions in return for its support.

The negotiation process is expected to commence once the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) declares the election results, likely within a 14-day period.