Global gas supplies to tighten this winter due to Strait of Hormuz LNG shock, warns IEA
The scope for increasing pipeline gas supplies remains limited, as long-distance pipelines generally operate close to their designed capacity, restricting their ability to offset LNG supply shortages
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global natural gas supplies could tighten significantly during the 2026-27 winter heating season due to disruptions in trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This interruption is expected to create an unprecedented supply shock for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.
According to the IEA, LNG shipments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates declined by 60 bcm year-on-year during March-October 2026, resulting in a 5% or 20 bcm reduction in global LNG output. The report stated that despite new projects adding around 18 bcm of supply during the winter, the additional supply is unlikely to compensate for the lost volumes from the Persian Gulf.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the end of March 2027, global LNG supply could experience a sharper decline of around 20 bcm, or 7% year-on-year during the winter period.
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