Explainer-What happens next after New Zealand’s vote?

New Zealand's governing coalition, consisting of the centre-right National Party, right-wing ACT Party, and nationalist New Zealand First, appeared to retain power based on an initial vote count following Saturday's general election. The trio secured a slim majority of 67 seats in the 131-seat parliament, with National winning 42 seats, ACT 13, and New Zealand First 12.

However, the composition of the next government will not be determined until official results are announced on November 27. About 14% of the vote, or 399,365 ballots, remain to be counted, with these special votes potentially swaying the outcome. This includes ballots from voters abroad, who traditionally favor left-leaning parties.

As a result, potential beneficiaries could include the Green Party, Te Pati Maori, and the Labour Party, currently the largest party outside the governing coalition. Once the final results are in, parties will negotiate either a coalition or confidence and supply agreements, where a smaller party agrees to support a larger party's government on key votes without gaining cabinet seats.

The centrist Opportunity Party, which is making its parliamentary debut, argues for evidence-based policies and could play a kingmaker role in the final negotiations. While National leader and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity, the party has expressed willingness to discuss joining forces. Both Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins have stated they will wait for the final result before initiating coalition discussions.

The incumbent government will continue as a caretaker administration until the new government is formed, and Parliament must convene on or before January 14.