Early count in New Zealand's election suggests result too close to call

Wellington, New Zealand (AP) -- Preliminary counts in this year's New Zealand election on Saturday revealed a fiercely contested contest with no clear winner, raising the probability of a closely-fought result. With approximately one-third of votes tallied, the conservative National Party and its minor partner coalition, ACT and NZ First, were teetering on the edge of a narrow majority or narrowly failing to secure one, implying that regaining power would be precarious.

The National Party and the left-wing opposition, led by Chris Hipkins, were in a tight race, with their support hovering just under 30% of the vote. Both parties, however, acknowledged their results as subpar, reflecting pre-election polls that indicated little enthusiasm among voters for either dominant political party.

A new political figure, Qiulae Wong, who experienced a surge in popularity before the vote, was poised to enter Parliament. The socially liberal, technocratic Opportunity party, led by the 38-year-old Wong, entered the political landscape with her promises to introduce long-term thinking and reduce partisan disputes. Opportunity has expressed readiness to negotiate either a Conservative or a left-wing government and would initially deal with the party that secured the most votes. Nevertheless, the extent of Wong's success remained uncertain on Saturday.

Following the announcement of Opportunity's first victory, the Conservatives were identified as short of a majority. Voting commenced on October 26 and concluded on Saturday, with roughly 3.8 million eligible New Zealanders participating. Results from 95% of ballots were anticipated by the end of the night. A comprehensive tally is scheduled for November 27, including results from overseas votes. New Zealand, a South Pacific nation, is home to a population of 5.6 million.

New Zealanders do not elect their prime minister; instead, they cast two votes - one for their preferred party and another to select a local representative. To govern, a coalition of parties must secure more than half of parliament's seats. Initial figures suggested a potential 130-seat Parliament, implying that a majority would require 66 seats.

However, parties negotiating shared governing arrangements would prefer a larger margin. Preliminary results showed the coalition of National, ACT, and NZ First holding 65 seats, while the left-wing bloc, led by Hipkins and Labour, and including the Green Party and Te Pati Maori, an Indigenous rights group, held a combined 58 seats. Both these figures were likely to continue fluctuating throughout the night.

The left-wing opposition, led by Hipkins, sought a second term after a resounding defeat three years prior, but his chances of returning to power had not improved significantly from pre-election opinion polls that showed Luxon's declining popularity. The early results indicated that minor parties on both the left and right were winning more seats than they had in the 2023 election, which had propelled Luxon to office.

Analysts suggested that economic challenges, including inflation, living costs, and unemployment, coupled with apathy towards the premierships of either Luxon and Hipkins, would result in an increase in support for minor parties, granting them greater negotiating power in forming a governing coalition and compelling the major parties to incorporate more of their agendas into policy.

The preliminary data aligned with pre-election malaise among the major parties, highlighting the growing influence of minor parties, such as Opportunity, which could hold the balance of power in forming a government.