Could Trump launch a nuclear strike on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain? What an attack could look like and why November 9 matters

In recent weeks, the United States has carried out limited strikes against Iranian targets, sparking speculation about potential further military action. On November 7, Trump confirmed that American forces had conducted minor strikes on Iranian air defence systems near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these operations, there is no evidence suggesting Trump has ordered a broader military offensive against Iran.

Earlier this week, the US also carried out strikes in retaliation for an attack on American forces in Iraq. However, the latest strikes do not establish a pattern of a larger military campaign.

Reports have emerged that US military planners are considering options for resuming operations against Iran as early as November 9. This date has been suggested due to a new moon over the Middle East, which could provide favorable conditions for military operations with reduced moonlight. However, US Central Command had reportedly received no executive order authorizing an attack, indicating that such a timetable remains a reported possibility rather than a confirmed military timetable.

Trump has also expressed his willingness to inflict further destruction on Iran, stating he may have to act if necessary. Nevertheless, he has also claimed progress towards a negotiated settlement, adding to the uncertainty surrounding his potential military actions. In response to the rising tensions, the United States has issued a heightened vigilance advisory for Americans across the Middle East, warning of increased threats from Iranian-backed Houthis and Iranian efforts to target American government officials in the region.

The advisory did not, however, announce an imminent US offensive or suggest that Washington is preparing to use nuclear weapons.