A knife-edge result, 3 possible outcomes: what comes next after NZ’s election?

New Zealand has spoken, with the Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins declaring victory, but an uncertain future lies ahead. The election results have created an overhang of 129-130 MPs, giving the right bloc a slim majority. Three possible scenarios for the next government have been identified:

Scenario 1: The right has a working majority. In this case, National would return to power under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, forming a coalition government with the same parties as before. However, the overhang will result in fewer and less experienced ministers in the cabinet, as many senior officials have been replaced. National's share of cabinet positions might fall below their previous percentage.

Scenario 2: The coalition needs Opportunity. If the right bloc does not achieve a majority, they may need the support of the centrist Opportunity Party to form a government. This would require Prime Minister Luxon to compromise and consider supporting the Opportunity Party leader, Qiulae Wong. However, Wong's party may oppose a government that threatens their core values, while National could lose some of its most experienced members to the government.

Scenario 3: The left plus Opportunity have the numbers. Chris Hipkins could become prime minister for the second time, forming a government with the support of the left-wing Labour Party and the centrist Opportunity Party. This scenario would depend on the parties reaching an agreement regarding cabinet positions and confidence and supply arrangements.

Both Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity may seek enhanced confidence and supply agreements, allowing them to push for their preferred policies without formally joining a coalition government.