2027: Why trusted voices beat ethnic rhetoric in 2023
These are indeed interesting times in Nigeria. But there is nothing happening today that has not happened before. In 2007, for instance, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar fought through the courts to be on the ballot. I was in Adamawa to monitor that election. He was only cleared to contest barely 48 hours to the […]
The 2027 Nigerian presidential election is approaching, and seasoned political observer Omipidan emphasizes the importance of effective political communication in shaping electoral outcomes. Drawing from his analysis of the 2023 election, Omipidan highlights the significant role played by traditional and digital communication strategies in influencing voters' choices.
His research, published in the Redeemer’s University Journal of Management and Social Sciences, surveyed 1,149 voters in Plateau, Nasarawa, and the Federal Capital Territory, revealing that exposure to various campaign methods significantly impacted voting decisions.
The study found that voters were most influenced by the exposure to strategies such as rallies, town hall meetings, door-to-door campaigns, and radio jingles. Notably, trusted community voices emerged as the most influential factor, with communication from community influencers having the highest predictive value (β =.245) in the multiple regression analysis. This finding underscores the importance of leveraging local influencers to communicate with voters.
Despite the dominance of digital media, radio jingles were rated as the single most common source of campaign information, followed by television advertisements, town hall meetings, and digital formats. Door-to-door mobilization, use of local languages, and interpersonal conversations also ranked highly in influencing voters. The research further revealed that performance-based framing, where candidates presented themselves as reformers based on their past achievements, was effective in convincing voters of their capabilities.
While identity-based campaign messages based on ethnic or religious affiliations were widespread, they did not independently determine voters' decisions once other communication factors were considered. Voters placed more emphasis on the credibility, usefulness, and personal relevance of messages rather than symbolic appeals. The study also found that negative campaigning had a limited impact on voters' decisions, suggesting that persuasive information and trusted messengers were more effective than smear tactics.
Overall, political communication strategies accounted for approximately 33 percent of voters' decisions, leaving other factors such as candidate credibility, economic concerns, governance records, party loyalty, and personal expectations to play a significant role. As political parties prepare for the 2027 general election, Omipidan advises that they should shift away from excessive reliance on ethnic and religious messaging.
Instead, they should develop issue-based campaigns that focus on trusted community leaders, radio, interpersonal engagement, and integrated digital communication to effectively engage voters.
Written by urgent.news from Daily Trust's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
