White evangelicals lose electoral ground while religious nones expand their influence

In the 2026 midterms, religious nones outnumbered white evangelicals by ten percentage points among voters, marking a significant shift in America's religious-political landscape. White evangelicals, who had traditionally dominated this sphere, saw their share of voters drop from 23% in 2024 to 17% in 2026, down from 24% in 2022. Despite this decline in voter numbers, their support for Republican House candidates remained stable at 82%, only slightly higher than in previous years.

In contrast, the religiously unaffiliated, commonly referred to as nones, saw their voting share grow from 24% in 2024 to 27% in 2026. This demographic's Democratic support also increased, rising from 70% to 78%. Robert P. Jones, president and founder of the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), highlighted that the decline of white evangelicals extends beyond mere election results. They noted that evangelical denominations have lost millions of members over the past two decades.

Jones pointed out that white evangelical Protestants now constitute 13% of American adults, a significant decrease from 23% in 2006. Meanwhile, religious nones have grown to 28% of adults, up from 16% in 2006. This demographic shift contrasts with the shrinking population footprint of white evangelicals, who still make up a larger portion of voters than their share of the adult population suggests.

Even staunch supporters of President Trump, such as white evangelicals, have cooled in their approval of his second term. Trump's approval among this group fell from 78% in early 2025 to just 58% before the midterms. Nevertheless, they remain one of the few religious groups where a majority approves of his performance. Despite this, the religious right's influence in Washington has remained strong, with Trump establishing a White House Faith Office and creating a Justice Department task force to tackle alleged anti-Christian bias.