What are the odds of an escalation of the war on Iran in the wake of the US midterms?

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections were not solely a result of the Iran war. Rather, they represented a repudiation of the U.S.-Israel relationship, particularly under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While many Americans did not necessarily aim to abandon Israel as a state or reject its security concerns, they were unwilling to support an unconditional strategic relationship that could draw the U.S. into costly wars without enough accountability.

The erosion of unconditional support for Israel began earlier than the Iran war, particularly following Israel's military campaign in Gaza after the Hamas attacks in October 2023. This conflict, coupled with the suffering of civilians and the failure to reach a credible political settlement, progressively undermined Israel's standing among significant segments of American society. The Iran war only accelerated this deterioration.

The 2026 elections exposed the deeper issue that the U.S.-Israel relationship was no longer considered untouchable in American politics. Republican and Democratic administrations had historically differed on various issues, but both parties generally regarded Israel's security as an enduring American strategic commitment. However, Netanyahu's close association with President Trump led to a disruption of this arrangement.

During the election, President Trump suggested discontinuing nearly $4 billion in annual military assistance to Israel, arguing that Israel no longer needed such aid. However, his proposed alternative through arms sales raised questions about whether the financial and strategic relationship would fundamentally change. This last-minute announcement was interpreted as an acknowledgment that support for Israel had become politically costly.

Trump's recognition of the political danger of the war came too late, as Vice-President JD Vance had already identified the conflict as a major cause of Republican losses. Despite Trump's subsequent acknowledgment that the Iran war contributed to Republican losses, the contradiction between his commitment to the war and his desire to distance the U.S. from Israel remained evident.