US midterms offer South Africa false comfort

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa found unexpected allies in Washington during the US midterms, though these newfound friendships offer little solace to his pressing domestic issues. As the African National Congress (ANC), once the dominant party under Nelson Mandela, struggles in local elections, Ramaphosa's 2027 leadership bid faces a formidable challenge.

With over two-thirds of the vote tallied, respected election models forecast the ANC could fare its worst in municipal races ever, bolstering those who question the efficacy of Ramaphosa's centrist policies.

Simultaneously, Ramaphosa contends with the White House, where US President Donald Trump has launched a vigorous assault on Pretoria, targeting racial policies and foreign affairs. Trump has even threatened to terminate the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade program crucial for South Africa. However, Ramaphosa perceives a glimmer of hope in the recent Democratic Party's gains in both houses of Congress, envisioning a "new era in world relations."

Critics, including top Democrats Richard Neal and Gregory Meeks, vehemently oppose the withdrawal of South Africa from AGOA, branding it as "grounded in grievance." They argue that such a move could inadvertently empower China, especially as Ramaphosa's political clout weakens domestically. The irony is that a diminished Trump may be more prone to target South Africa, a remote nation whose post-apartheid racial politics can be easily weaponized to fuel America's cultural battles, just as Ramaphosa's authority wanes at home.