Trump-Kim reset after midterm blow? Why North Korea may hold the cards

As U.S. President Donald Trump faces significant losses in the midterm elections, there is speculation that he may turn his attention to North Korea in hopes of securing foreign policy victories before his presidency concludes. However, any effort to rekindle negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could lead to conflicts with key Asian allies, according to a Reuters report.

With ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, analysts and officials in Asia believe Trump might increasingly look to the region to bolster his foreign policy legacy during the last two years of his term. While Kim has expressed a desire to resume dialogue with Trump, Pyonyang has little incentive to return to the negotiating table, given its expanded military capabilities and strategic partnerships.

International relations professor Ban Kil-joo of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul predicts that Trump will devote considerable effort to achieving foreign policy successes, especially if he faces constraints at home. He notes that engaging with North Korea could be part of his agenda to ensure a successful successor in 2028.

The White House has stated that Trump's foreign policy decisions are not motivated by politics, and he aims to act in the best interest of the American people and national security. Trump and Kim met three times during Trump's first presidency, but their 2019 summit ended without an agreement due to unresolved issues surrounding North Korea's nuclear weapons program and sanctions relief.

Since then, North Korea has significantly expanded its nuclear and missile arsenal, while its relationships with Russia and China have strengthened, diminishing its incentives to negotiate with Washington. This may compel Trump to offer more substantial concessions to persuade Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table.

Despite Trump's positive remarks about his relationship with Kim, both leaders have maintained that dialogue remains a possible route to peace. However, Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, has criticized what she calls Washington's "hostile policy" and denied accusations that North Korea stole over $6 billion in virtual assets from Binance.

Experts agree that a summit without denuclearization could undermine deterrence and create policy friction among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. Furthermore, a move to accept North Korea's nuclear status as part of a diplomatic agreement could fundamentally alter the security landscape in Asia, potentially leading to a significant shift in the post-World War II era.