Tinubu’s reforms: Turning global pressure into Nigerian progress

In the aftermath of America's midterm elections, Nigeria finds itself contemplating its own political trajectory amidst voter discontent over inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the unpredictable U.S. economy. As the Associated Press observed, global shocks, particularly those affecting living costs, have the power to reach economies worldwide, including Nigeria.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's economic reforms have bolstered the nation's resilience against such pressures, enabling it to capitalize on emerging opportunities and mitigate challenges. The World Bank's 2026 Nigeria Development Update reveals a significant economic uptick, with the country's GDP expanding by 4.2% in the first half of 2026, a 0.3% increase from the previous year's comparable period.

This growth is largely attributed to the services sector and heightened agricultural output. Looking ahead, the World Bank anticipates that Nigeria's GDP will average around 4.4% through 2028, outpacing population growth and gradually alleviating poverty—a trend that has remained stagnant since 2019. Despite the global economic uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices, Nigeria has experienced a mixed economic impact.

On the downside, higher energy costs initially disrupted the nation's disinflationary trend, causing inflation to peak at 27.6% in January 2025. Conversely, stronger oil prices have bolstered export revenues, fortified the nation's external standing, and generated additional fiscal resources, leading to a $12 billion current-account surplus in the first half of 2026.

External reserves have also surged, climbing from $45.5 billion at year-end 2025 to $53.8 billion by August 2026. The government's real-term revenue surge, a 69% increase between 2023 and 2025, is largely credited to exchange-rate reforms, the elimination of petrol subsidies, and enhanced revenue administration. State governments, the biggest beneficiaries of these allocated funds, have responded by boosting capital expenditure by 151% in real terms, primarily in sectors such as transportation, agriculture, energy, and housing.

These figures symbolize the tangible results of challenging reforms initiated by the Tinubu administration in 2023. These include the abandonment of consumption subsidies and the dismantling of a convoluted exchange-rate system that had distorted investment decisions, fostering a more transparent, sustainable, and productive economic framework.

The strategic value of these reforms is evident in Nigeria's enhanced capacity to leverage higher oil prices for national benefit. While acknowledging the progress, it is crucial to recognize that millions of Nigerians are still grappling with the high cost of essential commodities, including food, transportation, energy, and business operations.

Rising global fuel prices have complicated the inflation outlook and decelerated the relief process. Despite these ongoing hardships, it is vital to recognize that the World Bank assessment, which underscores these challenges, also acknowledges that the administration's reforms have created previously unheard-of fiscal space. Moreover, the World Bank projects that inflation could drop to around 12% by 2028 if the reform momentum persists.

This underscores the argument for continuity, as the economic foundation laid by Tinubu's first-term reforms—marked by improved growth, strengthened government revenues, better external balances, and stabilized poverty levels—provides a solid basis for future endeavors. However, translating these macroeconomic gains into tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians remains a priority.

This necessitates a more concentrated effort to reduce food costs through enhanced agricultural productivity, efficient transportation systems, and robust supply chains. Additionally, the additional fiscal resources now available to state governments must be channeled into constructing better roads, providing reliable electricity, improving public services, and implementing infrastructure that directly stimulates economic activity.

Furthermore, stronger social protection measures are required to safeguard vulnerable households, alongside a more comprehensive approach to addressing persistent issues.