Prediction markets had a great election night: Now bettors are turning to which Trump officials could leave first

Following the midterms, prediction market traders have shifted their focus to what lies ahead for the Trump Administration. With Democrats set to investigate various aspects of the administration, including the war in Iran, allegations of corruption, and more, speculations are growing about which Trump officials could leave first.

Polymarket's trading volume on this topic reached nearly $190,000, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio emerging as the top contenders. As of Friday morning, Hegseth led with approximately 31% of the vote, followed by Wiles at 24% and Rubio at 8%. However, traders also consider a 27% chance that no Cabinet departures will occur before 2027.

Hegseth's lead stems from the ongoing debate over his role in the Iran war, with House Republicans considering impeachment charges against him for alleged actions without congressional approval. Wiles has become a target as well, as Republicans seek someone to blame for their midterm losses, with former Trump aide Caroline Sunshine calling for her resignation due to her inability to translate campaign skills into effective governance.

Rubio, on the other hand, has been questioned about his future in the administration and a potential 2028 presidential bid, though he has remained steadfast in his intention to serve out the remainder of Trump's term.