OPINIÃO. No debate do ‘gas release’, o regulado quer virar regulador

Five years ago, the Congress made a decision. Upon approving the New Gas Law, it mandated the ANP to adopt mechanisms to reduce the concentration of natural gas supply – one of these mechanisms is the gas release, a compulsory sale through auctions of part of the dominant sector agent's gas, Petrobras. The law was signed without vetoes, so the debate should not be whether the gas release should exist, only how and when it will be implemented.

The ANP brought the topic to public consultation in August, rejecting Petrobras's request to prolong the schedule in September. Weeks later, it relented and pushed the public hearing from October 21 to November 19. In the meantime, Petrobras took its complaints to the Planalto and began using investments as leverage, suspending the licensing of the Sergipe Waters Deep Pipeline, SEAP, to "evaluate the impact" of the program.

What is seen in this case is a role reversal: the regulated behaves like a regulator and does not admit to being regulated by anyone but itself. Petrobras holds over 70% of the national gas supply, and there is no single line in the legislation that guarantees this position for it. The legal monopoly ended in 1997 with the opening of the oil sector.

What exists today is a de facto monopoly, supported by control over infrastructure and the political strength of a Union-controlled company. The de facto monopoly of Petrobras allows it to charge monopolistic prices, causing gas to be absurdly expensive in Brazil, inflating the prices of various production chains that use gas as a raw material.

Everyone loses, only Petrobras wins. This is not an opinion, it is a fact. Look at the Union's first gas auction, carried out by PPSA on October 22. Until then, that PPSA gas was sold to Petrobras. When put on the market, it was entirely bid for, with a 35% margin and a final price of $5.83 per million BTU at delivery to industry.

Compared to Petrobras's current pricing of around $12 per million BTU, the Union earned more and industry paid less. There is demand and there is supply. What is missing is competition. This is the context of the debate in the Chamber of Deputies on PL 5.802/2025, reported by deputy Arnaldo Jardim, which reinforces what the Gas Law already determines and gives the ANP even more support to confront the monopoly.

But, faced with what has been seen in recent months, even this bill may not be enough. There is, therefore, a suggestion to the relator, in two directions. The first would be to establish in law that Petrobras releases 9 million cubic meters per day during the first cycle of the gas release, from 2027 to 2031, according to ANP criteria.

The program would no longer depend on the agency's willingness to confront the state at each meeting, and any change would require technical justification instead of lobbying. The second would be to include in Law 9.847/1999, which deals with infractions in the sector, the deliberate delay, without ANP authorization, of approved development plans that imply an increase in gas supply of more than 2 million cubic meters per day.

Currently, the law already provides fines of R$ 500 million per day for infractions. A bill like SEAP, today's main new frontier of gas in the Country, cannot become a pawn of a monopolist trying to coerce its regulator. It may seem harsh, but that is what happens when the dominant agent treats the law as a suggestion. If the opening does not come through conviction, come with force.

A more competitive market with an independent and autonomous regulator is better for industry, consumers, and even Petrobras itself. They just haven't figured that out yet. Adriano Pires is the founder of the Brazilian Center for Infrastructure (CBIE). Pedro Rodrigues is the director of the same institute.