Norway’s Oil and Gas Industry Faces a Major Decline Without New Discoveries
For more than half a century, Norway’s oil and gas production has been underpinned by a handful of very large discoveries, the last of which, Wisting in the Barents Sea, was made more than a decade ago. Since then, exploration on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) has increasingly focused on smaller finds close to existing infrastructure, allowing operators to bring new volumes online faster…
Norway's oil and gas industry faces a major decline unless new discoveries are made, with current production set to fall short by 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2040, according to Rystad Energy's base-case outlook. This decline is primarily due to the country's increasing reliance on smaller, lower-impact finds close to existing infrastructure, rather than large discoveries that have historically sustained production.
Even if exploration volumes doubled from the previous decade's level and development timelines were halved, a shortfall of 1.4 million boepd would still remain. The problem lies in the size of discoveries, with each successful well adding only around 7 million boe compared to the global average of 18.4 million boe. Despite Norway's high exploration success rate and substantial remaining offshore resources, the country's ability to find large discoveries has declined, with only a few major fields discovered since 2016.
To reverse the decline, operators must take on greater exploration risk and pursue high-impact prospects, while the government must support this shift by providing access to fresh acreage and favorable conditions for investment in higher-risk exploration.
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