Kenya’s children nearing age 5 have lowest development-on-track rate, KNBS survey finds

A recent survey conducted by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) has revealed a concerning disparity in early childhood development among Kenyan children. According to the 2025-26 Kenya Mini Demographic and Health Survey, 78.8% of children aged 48-59 months were developmentally on track, whereas 89.6% of children aged 3-11 months met the same benchmarks. This 10.8 percentage point gap indicates that as children approach their fifth birthday, they are less likely to meet age-specific early-development criteria.

The survey's findings emphasize that this is not a matter of children losing developmental abilities as they grow older, but rather highlights a significant difference in the proportion of children meeting the relevant age-specific benchmarks. This age-based difference in developmental outcomes sheds light on the multifaceted nature of early childhood development in Kenya, encompassing health, learning, and psychosocial well-being.

When analyzing the data based on mothers' education levels, the gap becomes even more pronounced. Among children aged 3-59 months, only 65.8% of those whose mothers had no education were classified as developmentally on track, compared to 91.5% of children whose mothers had more than secondary education. This 25.7 percentage point gap between the lowest and highest education categories underscores the influence of maternal education on children's development.

Furthermore, the survey revealed a stark contrast in developmental outcomes based on household wealth. In the poorest wealth quintile, 71.5% of children were considered developmentally on track, while the wealthiest quintile had a rate of 90.1%. This 18.6 percentage point disparity emphasizes the role of household wealth in shaping children's developmental trajectories.

These findings underscore the unequal start in early childhood development, with children from different backgrounds experiencing vastly different outcomes. The KNBS report categorizes children as "developmentally on track in health, learning, and psychosocial well-being." For younger children aged 3-23 months, the survey utilized the World Health Organization's Global Scales of Early Development, while for children aged 24-59 months, the UNICEF's Early Childhood Development Index 2030 was employed. These combined measures cover children aged 3-59 months.

Although the overall figure of 83.5% might appear encouraging, it fails to capture the substantial differences between children from households at opposite ends of the wealth and education scales. The survey also highlights the need to examine whether families have equal access to the conditions that support early development, such as adequate nutrition, responsive care, and opportunities for early learning.

It is crucial to note that the survey does not establish a direct causal relationship between a mother's education or a household's wealth and a child's developmental outcome; rather, it reveals associations in the data.

While these findings provide policymakers with a reason to look beyond national averages and focus on specific children who may require additional support, it is essential to avoid labeling children who do not meet the survey's benchmarks as having developmental disorders. The indicator represents a population-level measure, rather than an individual clinical diagnosis.

Nonetheless, these findings offer policymakers a reason to address not only children's survival but also their opportunities to develop, learn, and thrive, ensuring a more equitable foundation for future generations.