Fuel demands, super El Nino turn up the heat on COP31

Over 300 ministers, 91 world leaders and representatives from 196 nations are set to convene at COP31, the United Nations annual climate talks, in Antalya, Turkey. Australia, as this year's president of negotiations, will lead discussions on a multitude of mandates and agenda items, aiming to secure a consensus and a cover decision endorsed by all parties.

The talks are set against a backdrop of an energy security crisis due to conflict in the Middle East, the impact of a strong El Nino, and the global challenge of overshooting the 1.5C warming target.

Climate Action Network Australia suggests the negotiations will be a complex, three-dimensional game of chess. Environmental groups and academics point out that Australia will face challenges in representing the needs of its Pacific neighbours while defending its reliance on fossil fuel exports. Securing agreement on a cover decision, which is unlikely to set new commitments but may contain language on the importance of the 1.5C goal and the phase-out of fossil fuels, will be a significant task.

The event's action agenda targets reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning away from fossil fuels, overseeing carbon markets, funding climate projects in developing nations, and assisting impacted countries.

Australia's potential contribution to these discussions is bolstered by its investments in renewable energy and the world-leading adoption of rooftop solar. The "35 by 35" pledge, aiming for 35% of final global energy consumption to come from electricity by 2035, could be well-received amid rising oil prices and cost-of-living pressures.

However, developing nations will require financial assistance to upgrade their grids and meet the electrification goal. The trust gap between developed and developing countries regarding their responsibilities will need frank discussions.

Pacific nations, including Fiji, are counting on Australia to advocate for their interests at COP31. They aim for equitable climate finance, efforts to halt the expansion of fossil fuel projects, and to consider the climate and ocean nexus. One of the biggest sticking points is likely to be the transition away from fossil fuels.

While Australia's actions at home, such as approving coal, oil, and gas projects, may undermine its leadership, it has an opportunity to broker cooperation that meets the moment. Rejecting domestic fossil fuel production applications could strengthen Australia's credibility as a negotiator.