Energy Aspects Slashes Forecast of China’s November Diesel Exports
Reduced domestic inventories will likely result in significantly lower Chinese exports of diesel in November amid the global diesel crisis, analysts at Energy Aspects say as they slashed their estimates of Chinese shipments this month. Energy Aspects now sees China’s diesel exports at about 580,000 tons in November, down by 400,000 tons from the previous assessment, according to a note carried by…
Energy Aspects has reduced its forecast for China's November diesel exports due to reduced domestic inventories and the ongoing global diesel crisis. The consultancy now expects China to export around 580,000 tons of diesel in November, a significant decrease of 400,000 tons from their previous estimate. However, they also note that upward revisions could occur if domestic demand declines in the middle of November.
Weak export margins for diesel in recent weeks might also impact Chinese refiners' export plans. China's diesel exports are expected to decline in November, following the peak levels seen in August and September. This decline is attributed to increased fuel shipments at the end of the summer, which have reduced domestic inventories.
Refiners have not yet finalized shipments for the second half of November, but early estimates suggest that export volumes could reach about 800,000 tons, down from 1.33 million tons in August and 1.8 million tons in September. Despite domestic refined product inventories hitting their lowest level in nearly seven years, it is unlikely that China will suspend diesel exports nationwide in November.
According to GL Consulting, improved crude feedstock availability, flexible refinery operations, and limited domestic demand growth could help alleviate supply constraints and potentially boost China's refined product exports in November, even if some diesel cargoes are canceled or rescheduled.
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