COP31 faces tough test as climate threats mount

Nearly 200 countries are set to gather for the COP31 climate summit in Turkey's Antalya city from Monday, facing challenges that temper expectations of significant progress in combating the climate crisis. Over 100,000 people are anticipated to attend the two-week UN-led negotiations. Tensions over geopolitics, finance, and fossil fuels are running high, making a major breakthrough unlikely.

Developed countries are reluctant to commit additional funds, and an energy crisis caused by the Middle East conflict is casting a shadow over the event. Former French climate negotiator Paul Watkinson describes the summit as an "intermediate" event, emphasizing the need for progress. The talks follow extreme weather events such as deadly floods in Nepal, heatwaves in Europe, and devastating wildfires in Indonesia.

A strong El Nino event is expected to exacerbate extreme weather conditions and potentially make 2026 or 2027 the hottest years on record. The UN warned in September that global temperatures are on track to surpass 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement. Turkey, currently hosting COP31, aims to transform past commitments into tangible results through an "action agenda" focused on non-binding pledges across various sectors, including artificial intelligence and waste management.

The centerpiece of Turkey's plan is an electrification drive, seeking to increase the global share of electricity in energy demand from 20% to 35% by 2035. This initiative, endorsed by Australian climate minister Chris Bowen, promises to protect communities from volatile markets and reduce emissions. However, a money dispute looms as developed nations struggle to fulfill their financial commitments to aid developing countries in adapting to climate change and transitioning to cleaner energy.