China's marriage registrations hit 18-year low in first 9 months
China recorded 4.65 million marriage registrations in the first nine months of 2026, nearly 10% fewer than a year earlier, government data show.
China's marriage registrations dropped to an 18-year low in the first nine months of the year, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs. The total number of marriages registered from January to September was the lowest for that period in 18 years, reported Reuters. Independent demographer He Yafu estimated full-year registrations to range between 5.88 million and 6.46 million, based on historical trends.
Even the highest estimate would still be lower than the 2025 total. This decline comes after a 10.8% increase in 2025, driven by demand for auspicious dates, a new service enabling couples to register anywhere in the country, and local incentives, as noted by the South China Morning Post.
Marriage registrations are a key indicator of births, as most Chinese couples marry before having children and births outside marriage are rare, according to He Yafu. A decline in marriage registrations in 2026 could negatively impact births in 2027. Furthermore, China's population shrank for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, with a decrease of 3.39 million to 1.405 billion. This reduction was due to a record low birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000 people, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics.
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