Chances are, US-China truce will be extended at Shenzhen Apec summit

The US-China truce at the October meeting in South Korea was a recognition of mutual vulnerability to export restrictions, resulting in the suspension of some harsh measures. The leaders agreed to further summit-level talks. Since then, they have met twice, with the next expected at the Apec summit in Shenzhen. Some analysts believe strategic empathy has arrived, but reality remains uncertain.

China is a rising power, while the US is in relative decline, potentially leading to conflict. However, political leadership plays a crucial role in shaping grand strategy, and leaders can determine the intensity of competition. Direct military confrontation between nuclear powers is unwise, and intense conflict in the grey zone is possible.

The current period of detente depends on reducing economic vulnerabilities and agreeing on vital core interests. China has revived the concept from 2013, and Trump's Taiwan statements have unsettled the American foreign policy establishment. Arms sales to Taiwan could be a bargaining tool. The relationship between US and Chinese leaders is critical to consolidating the truce and cooperation on global issues.

An easing of Sino-American competition would benefit countries caught between the two giants. The Shenzhen summit could consolidate this geoeconomic truce, but a danger exists with China's technology industry's prominence.