Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Grows
Key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, as well as alternative indicators: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$…
Employment indicators, as determined by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, have shown growth, according to recent data released. This is in contrast to the situation in the first quarter of 2026, where employment had not been increasing at the same rate as output. However, consumption and retail sales were stagnant in September, while personal income decreased.
The data encompasses a variety of measures, including the BLS CES, BLS CPS, and ADP private nonfarm payroll employment. All these measures are currently rising, indicating a positive trend in the labor market.
Additionally, aggregate weekly hours index and average hourly earnings in 1982-84$ are also on the upward trajectory. The average hourly earnings observation for October 2026 is derived from a CPI nowcast.
Other labor market indicators include freight services indexes, monthly GDP, and the coincident index, all normalized to 2025M01=0. These figures highlight the complexity of the current economic situation, with rising employment figures not always correlating with growth in output or consumption.
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