2026 will most likely be the second hottest year on record – EU
This year has a ’20 percent chance of tying or exceeding’ 2024 as the warmest ever seen, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a monthly bulletin of the European Union Climate monitor. Global temperatures are now “virtually certain” to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2026. The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is […]
The Copernicus Climate Change Service predicts that 2026 will likely be the second hottest year on record, with a 20 percent chance of tying or surpassing 2024's record heat. The European Union's climate monitor has reported that global temperatures are now "virtually certain" to surpass 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2026.
The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also anticipated to exceed this critical threshold, as set in the Paris Agreement to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. October of this year witnessed the warmest global surface air temperatures ever recorded, registering 1.75C above pre-industrial times, a period defined from 1850 to 1900.
This marked the third consecutive month surpassing the 1.5C mark. Samantha Burgess, the strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, noted that October has reinforced the pattern of unprecedented global warmth, accompanied by record-breaking global and surface ocean temperatures. She attributed this to an exceptionally strong El Nino, which is adding substantial heat to an already warmed climate due to human activities.
The bulletin arrives as nations convene for the UN's COP31 climate summit in Turkey, following a year marked by devastating floods in Nepal, scorching heatwaves in Europe, and extensive wildfires in Indonesia. The upcoming El Nino, which has yet to peak, is expected to become the strongest on record. Forecasters have been warning for months that this weather phenomenon would likely elevate 2027 as the hottest year on record.
The 2015 Paris Agreement committed nations to keep global warming "well below" 2C above pre-industrial levels, with the goal of limiting it to 1.5C. However, in September, the UN declared that attaining the 1.5C target would be missed within years. Scientists emphasize the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to minimize the period of "overshoot" above 1.5C and expedite the return of temperatures to pre-overshoot levels.
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