2026 'most likely' to be second-hottest year on record: EU monitor

The world is poised to experience 2026 as the second-hottest year on record, according to the EU’s climate monitor. This prediction is based on an unusually strong El Nino weather pattern that is amplifying human-induced global warming, the Copernicus Climate Change Service reported. While 2026 only has a "20 percent chance of tying or exceeding" 2024 as the warmest year ever, global temperatures are expected to surpass 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, the EU experts said.

The average temperature from 2023 to 2026 is also forecasted to exceed the critical 1.5C threshold, which is the target set in the Paris Agreement to avert the worst effects of climate change. October 2026 was the hottest October on record, with global surface air temperatures 1.75C higher than pre-industrial levels, said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

This pattern of extraordinary global warmth has continued for three straight months, she added. El Nino, which typically occurs every few years, temporarily raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, leading to changes in weather patterns that can increase the risk of droughts, floods, and exacerbate man-made global warming.

Forecasts indicate that El Nino could peak later this year, potentially making 2027 the hottest year on record.