2026 'most likely' to be second-hottest year on record: EU monitor

The world is poised to witness 2026 as the second-hottest year on record, according to the EU's climate monitor. This prediction stems from the influence of a powerful El Nino weather pattern, which is amplifying the effects of human-induced global warming. While there remains a 20 percent chance that 2024 could surpass 2026 in terms of extreme heat, the Copernicus Climate Change Service maintains that global temperatures are virtually certain to surpass the 1.5C threshold above pre-industrial levels in 2026.

Moreover, the average temperature from 2023 to 2026 is expected to exceed this critical limit, aligning with the Paris Agreement's goal to curb the most severe consequences of climate change. October marked the hottest October ever recorded, with global surface air temperatures 1.75C above pre-industrial times, a timeframe spanning from 1850 to 1900.

Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which manages Copernicus, emphasized that October has continued the trend of unprecedented global warmth, characterized by record-breaking global and ocean surface temperatures.