Weakness on display as wartime closes in on Europe

Europe is bracing for a growing campaign of sabotage on vital infrastructure and shops in the wake of escalating "grey-zone warfare". Former senior Ministry of Defence official Peter Watkins warned of an increased likelihood of attacks on civilian sites, drawing parallels to Ukraine's experiences. Russia and Iran are suspected of potentially collaborating to destabilize the continent, having carried out attacks on supermarkets, airline bomb hoaxes, and French blood banks.

Megan Sutcliffe, a senior analyst, stated that Europe is witnessing an intensification of grey zone attacks aimed at undermining public confidence in governments. British officials have acknowledged an increase in hybrid warfare-based acts and pledged to resist infiltration. The attacks on refrigeration systems in supermarkets have caused significant disruption, with meat being thrown out in countries from Ireland to Finland.

Governments are advising citizens to stockpile essential supplies in anticipation of a major attack that could empty shelves. Oana Popescu-Zamfir, head of European security at Rusi think tank, stated that Russia has identified weaknesses in Europe's resilience that could be exploited at short notice. The attacks are seen as a sustained Russian campaign to weaken European support for Ukraine, with Moscow facing challenges on the battlefield.

European governments should also be wary of potential sabotage networks and sleeper cells activated by Russia and Iran in recent months. Iran's incentive to intensify cyber operations could deepen if the US and Israel launch further attacks on Iranian energy sites following the US mid-term elections. European governments are expected to face a sustained series of attacks aimed at critical infrastructure, shipping, or rail transport, with a possibility of closer strategic coordination between Moscow and Tehran.